The survival threshold: Why states do not die from revolutions
A Structural theory of institutional autonomy, meritocratic selection, and the pathology of identity-based allocation Abstract This article challenges the prevailing “event-centric” paradigm of state failure, which identifies revolutions, coups, and constitutional ruptures as the primary drivers of state collapse. By shifting the analytical lens toward historical institutionalism and Weberian sociology, I argue that such disruptions are […]
Institutional Erosion and the Loss of Temporal Governing Capacity
Toward an Integrated Theory of Decline Beyond Failure and Collapse Why institutional decline requires a unified theory The study of institutional decline has produced an extensive and diverse body of literature. Scholars have examined failing institutions through the lenses of performance deficits, elite capture, bureaucratic overload, legitimacy loss, and systemic complexity. Each of these approaches […]
The structural metamorphosis of West Asian geopolitics: Institutional resilience, tactical overreach, and the emergence of endogenous security architectures
The cessation of hostilities ratified on April 8, 2026, represents a terminal crisis for the traditional Western security paradigm in the Middle East. This treatise examines the transition from a unipolar enforcement model to a state of regional “Strategic Autonomy.” By analyzing the failure of kinetic intervention to dismantle the Iranian institutional core, this study […]
The survival threshold: Why states do not die from revolutions
The Survival Threshold: Why States Do Not Die from Revolutions A Structural Theory of Institutional Autonomy, Meritocratic Selection, and the Pathology of Identity-Based Allocation Abstract This article challenges the prevailing “event-centric” paradigm of state failure, which identifies revolutions, coups, and constitutional ruptures as the primary drivers of state collapse. By shifting the analytical lens toward historical […]
Institutional Continuity and the Survival of Political Order
Institutional Continuity and the Survival of Political Order ⸻ Introduction générale Alternation, rupture, and the architecture of political survival Political change is a universal feature of organized societies. Governments rise and fall, leaders succeed one another, and regimes evolve through elections, coups, reforms, or negotiated transitions. Yet history demonstrates a striking asymmetry: while some political […]
METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK
Institutions, power, and temporal governance
What institutions are, what they do, and how governing capacity erodes over time Abstract Institutions are often described as rules, organizations, or governance arrangements designed to coordinate collective action. Yet such definitions remain insufficient to explain a central paradox of contemporary governance: institutions frequently continue to function, produce outputs, and enforce compliance long after their […]
Strategy as disciplined selectivity in attention-depleting environments
Why Strategic Failure Is Primarily Cognitive Rather Than Tactical Abstract In contemporary strategic discourse, speed is increasingly equated with effectiveness. Responsiveness, agility, and real-time adaptation are framed as strategic virtues across military, political, and organizational domains. This article challenges that assumption. It argues that strategy is not a function of acceleration, but of disciplined selectivity […]
The bureaucratization of violence
When Domination Ceases to Shock and Begins to Function Introduction Political violence does not operate solely through visible brutality, armed confrontation, or spectacular repression. In many historical and contemporary contexts, violence becomes effective precisely when it abandons excess and adopts order. Rather than erupting as an exceptional act, it settles into procedures, regulations, and administrative […]
Strategy as Disciplined Selectivity in Attention-Depleting Environments
Why Strategic Failure Is Primarily Cognitive Rather Than Tactical Abstract In contemporary strategic discourse, speed is increasingly equated with effectiveness. Responsiveness, agility, and real-time adaptation are framed as strategic virtues across military, political, and organizational domains. This article challenges that assumption. It argues that strategy is not a function of acceleration, but of disciplined selectivity […]