Abstract

Since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan has shifted to a centralized, theocratic, and authoritarian governance model. This article examines the regime’s internal political structure, focusing on the centralization of power, the role of the Council of Ulema, the exclusion of ethnic minorities and women, and signs of internal dissent. Through an analytical approach, it explores the challenges the regime faces in maintaining its legitimacy.

Introduction

The Taliban’s rise to power on August 15, 2021, profoundly disrupted Afghanistan’s political structure. Following the collapse of the U.S.-backed government, the Taliban implemented a centralized governance model based on the strict application of Sharia law. This centralization of power was accompanied by the exclusion of women, ethnic and religious minorities, and the absence of any mechanisms for political participation.

However, this strategy of absolute control has sparked internal tensions and local resistance, raising questions about the regime’s capacity to sustain durable stability in a country historically marked by deep social divisions. This section of the article focuses on the governance structure established by the Taliban and its repercussions on national cohesion.

Outline

         1.      The Structure of Taliban Governance: A Centralized Power

         2.      The Role of the Council of Ulema and the Implementation of Sharia

         3.      The Treatment of Ethnic and Religious Minorities

         4.      The Exclusion of Women from Public Life

         5.      The Lack of Legitimacy and Internal Disputes

1. Afghanistan’s Internal Political Situation under the Taliban

1.1 The Structure of Taliban Governance: A Centralized Power

Following their takeover, the Taliban announced in September 2021 the formation of an “interim government” composed exclusively of influential figures within the movement, most of whom belong to the Pashtun ethnic group. At the helm, Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada wields absolute power, consolidating all major decisions.

Unlike a republican structure where power is separated and citizen representation plays a key role, the Taliban regime operates as a hierarchical pyramid, where central authorities dictate decisions to provincial and local levels. Provincial governors, directly appointed by the government, enforce directives without local consultation.

This model has reinforced the perception of an authoritarian regime, unable to address the diverse needs of the population. According to a 2022 Human Rights Watch report, “The concentration of power in Kabul and the absence of representative local institutions have exacerbated the marginalization of rural and ethnic communities.”

1.2 The Role of the Council of Ulema and the Implementation of Sharia

The Council of Ulema serves as one of the regime’s central institutions. Composed of influential theologians, it oversees the development of laws and religious edicts, shaping the regime’s policies. Decisions are based on a strict interpretation of Sharia, guiding public policy, especially regarding women’s rights and individual freedoms.

Successive decrees banning girls’ education and mandating full veiling highlight the Taliban’s commitment to enforcing a rigid religious discipline. This approach, however, has generated internal tensions: some Taliban factions, particularly in northern regions, fear these restrictions may fuel popular discontent and weaken the regime’s legitimacy.

1.3 The Treatment of Ethnic and Religious Minorities

Afghanistan’s ethnic mosaic includes Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and other minority groups. The Taliban, predominantly Pashtun, have been accused of marginalizing other communities, particularly the Shia Hazara minority, historically subjected to persecution.

Since 2021, several attacks targeting Hazara neighborhoods in Kabul and Bamiyan province have been attributed to groups affiliated with the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). However, international criticism has pointed to the Taliban’s inaction in addressing such violence, with some witnesses claiming that “the Taliban turn a blind eye to abuses.”

This situation exacerbates feelings of exclusion and raises suspicions of systemic discriminatory policies. Reports from the International Crisis Group (2023) warn that “the Taliban’s failure to protect minorities could spark uprisings and further undermine their legitimacy.”

1.4 The Exclusion of Women from Public Life

One of the regime’s most controversial policies is the systematic exclusion of women from public and economic life. In December 2022, the Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice banned women from working for non-governmental organizations (NGOs), severely impacting humanitarian operations, as many NGOs relied on female staff to access rural households.

The ban on girls’ education beyond secondary school has also led to a surge in early marriages, according to UNICEF. These restrictions reflect the Taliban’s efforts to entrench patriarchal norms and diminish women’s role in society.

1.5 The Lack of Legitimacy and Internal Disputes

Despite consolidating power at the central level, the Taliban face signs of dissent. Some regional factions criticize the centralization of power by the Council of Ulema and call for greater local autonomy.

Simultaneously, protests by women’s groups demanding their right to education and employment have defied government bans. These demonstrations, though harshly suppressed, reflect growing dissatisfaction among the population.

Internal divisions also exist between proponents of strict governance and moderate approaches. Such dissensions weaken the regime’s cohesion and raise prospects for long-term political fragmentation.

2. Human Rights and Freedoms under the Taliban Regime

Since their return to power on August 15, 2021, the Taliban have rapidly imposed severe restrictions on individual and collective freedoms. Contrary to initial promises of moderation, the regime has reinstated repressive practices reminiscent of their first rule from 1996 to 2001. This section examines key human rights violations in Afghanistan, focusing on the suppression of protests, girls’ education, press freedom, and persecution of minorities.

2.1 Suppression of Protests and Social Control

Within weeks of their takeover, the Taliban faced sporadic protests, particularly by Afghan women demanding their rights to education and employment. These protests were often brutally suppressed. Taliban security forces used live ammunition, tear gas, and arbitrary arrests to disperse gatherings.

In September 2022, a women-led protest in Kabul was violently interrupted by armed Taliban fighters. According to Human Rights Watch, several protesters were arrested and detained under inhumane conditions. International attention was drawn to these repressions through social media, but the regime increased censorship and banned all public assemblies without prior authorization.

Amnesty International (2023) notes that “the suppression of protests demonstrates the Taliban’s intent to crush any form of dissent, particularly those led by women.”

2.2 Education and Women’s Rights: Systematic Exclusion

The ban on girls’ education beyond secondary school is a defining policy of the Taliban’s repressive approach. In December 2022, the government declared that women could no longer attend universities, prompting widespread international condemnation. This decision has deprived millions of girls of their right to education and jeopardized the country’s future by limiting women’s participation in key professions like healthcare and education.

Despite the risks, clandestine initiatives have emerged. In certain provinces, secret schools for girls operate in private homes, symbolizing acts of resistance. UNICEF (2023) reports that “over 1.1 million Afghan girls have been denied their right to education since the Taliban’s takeover.”

2.3 Press Freedom and Censorship

Press freedom, which had significantly advanced after 2001, has faced severe setbacks since 2021. Many independent media outlets have shut down under regime pressure, while journalists covering sensitive issues, such as protests, are often arrested, intimidated, or tortured.

In December 2022, journalist Zakia Kohistani, known for reporting on women’s protests, was detained in Kabul without trial for several weeks. Reporters Without Borders (2023) highlights that “more than 60% of independent media outlets have ceased operations in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return.”

The remaining press is strictly controlled and subjected to constant self-censorship.

2.4 Persecution of Ethnic and Religious Minorities

Ethnic and religious minorities, particularly Shia Hazaras, Sikhs, and Hindus, have been the target of violent acts. Although the Taliban claim to protect all communities, attacks against Hazaras have intensified. In September 2022, a bombing claimed by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) targeted an educational center in a Hazara neighborhood in Kabul, killing over 50 people, most of whom were female students.

Taliban authorities have been accused of failing to ensure the security of minorities in the face of terrorist threats. Many observers state that this passivity fosters a sense of abandonment among these communities, who live in constant fear of further attacks.

A report by the International Crisis Group (2023) notes that “the Taliban regime’s inaction in addressing violence against the Hazaras reinforces the perception of systemic persecution.”

2.5 The LGBTQ+ Community: Total Erasure

The LGBTQ+ community in Afghanistan faces extreme persecution under the Taliban regime. Homosexual relationships are deemed crimes punishable by death under the strict interpretation of Sharia enforced by the Taliban. LGBTQ+ individuals live in complete secrecy to avoid arrests, public lynchings, and summary executions.

International NGOs that previously provided discreet support to this community before 2021 have ceased operations due to heightened risks. Testimonies from persecuted individuals are rare due to fear of retaliation, but some overseas organizations have collected accounts from survivors who have managed to flee the country.

According to a Human Rights Campaign report (2023), “the Taliban have created a climate of terror where LGBTQ+ individuals are rendered invisible and forced into exile.”

2.6 The International Response to Human Rights Violations

The international community has repeatedly condemned human rights violations in Afghanistan. Resolutions by the United Nations Human Rights Council have denounced the exclusion of women and the repression of protesters. However, the leverage to influence the Taliban is limited, especially since the regime does not require international recognition to maintain internal control.

Targeted sanctions have been imposed on some Taliban leaders, but these measures have had little impact on the situation on the ground. Additionally, diplomatic isolation complicates the implementation of effective humanitarian aid without some level of collaboration with Taliban authorities.

2.7 Assessment of Human Rights Issues

The Taliban regime has plunged Afghanistan into a deep regression in terms of human rights. Women, journalists, activists, and minorities are particularly affected by repressive policies aimed at controlling Afghan society. This widespread repression, combined with the international community’s inaction, risks having long-term consequences for the country’s social cohesion and stability.

Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis

3. Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis in Afghanistan

Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan has faced an unprecedented economic crisis. The collapse of financial institutions, freezing of foreign assets, withdrawal of investments, and suspension of much international aid have plunged the country into a deep recession. This economic crisis has quickly turned into a humanitarian catastrophe, affecting millions of Afghans. This section examines the main drivers of the economic crisis, its impact on the population, and the role of international actors in managing this situation.

3.1 The Freezing of Afghan Assets and International Sanctions

Following the Taliban’s takeover, the United States froze nearly $7 billion belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank. These funds, intended to stabilize the economy and finance essential needs, were blocked due to the Taliban’s designation as a terrorist organization by the international community.

The freezing of assets immediately paralyzed Afghanistan’s banking system, making it impossible to access foreign reserves to finance imports of essential goods like food and medicine. This decision also impacted government payrolls and pensions, creating a budgetary void. Businesses ceased operations, and banks imposed strict withdrawal limits, leading to a liquidity shortage.

According to a World Bank report (2023), “the freezing of international reserves has exacerbated Afghanistan’s dependence on humanitarian aid, limiting the government’s ability to manage inflation and meet basic needs.”

3.2 Collapse of Investments and Exports

The withdrawal of U.S. troops and the Taliban’s rise to power triggered a massive exodus of foreign investors. Many businesses reliant on contracts linked to international aid shut down, resulting in the loss of thousands of jobs. The construction sector, once an economic pillar supported by international projects, was among the hardest hit.

Economic sanctions further restricted Afghanistan’s access to international markets. Exports, particularly of dried fruits, carpets, and marble, declined sharply due to trade restrictions and the lack of logistical means to transport goods.

A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2022) states that “Afghanistan’s GDP shrank by nearly 30% in one year, marking one of the most severe recessions in modern history.”

3.3 Rising Poverty and Unemployment

One of the direct consequences of the economic collapse is the explosion of unemployment and poverty. According to estimates by the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 90% of Afghan households live below the poverty line, and more than 24 million people require humanitarian assistance to survive.

Families increasingly rely on informal income or remittances from the Afghan diaspora. However, restrictions on international banking transactions complicate these transfers, depriving millions of families of critical support. Youth unemployment rates have reached alarming levels, leaving the younger generation with virtually no future prospects.

According to the WFP (2023), “more than 50% of Afghans face acute food insecurity, and children are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition crises.”

3.4 Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

Afghanistan relies heavily on agriculture to feed its population. However, recurring droughts and a lack of access to modern farming equipment have reduced domestic food production. Additionally, the economic crisis has made food imports increasingly expensive, driving up the cost of staples such as bread, rice, and oil.

The climate crisis is exacerbating the situation: droughts have diminished wheat and barley harvests, two essential crops for millions of rural families. Furthermore, the lack of government support or agricultural programs leaves farmers vulnerable to losses, prompting internal migrations to already overcrowded cities.

The annual report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2023) notes that “agricultural yields have dropped by 40% in some provinces due to the lack of technical and financial support.”

3.5 Impact on Essential Public Services

Afghanistan’s healthcare sector has been severely impacted by the economic crisis. Many hospitals, previously funded by international NGOs, have ceased operations due to a lack of funding. Medical personnel often go unpaid, and hospitals face critical shortages of medicines and equipment.

Education has also suffered. Beyond the bans on girls’ schooling, many public schools have closed due to a lack of resources or insecurity in rural provinces. Sending children to school has become a challenge for many families, who must choose between education and putting their children to work to meet household needs.

The WHO (2023) reports that “nearly 60% of Afghan healthcare facilities are in critical condition, unable to provide basic services to local populations.”

3.6 The Role of International Humanitarian Aid

In the face of this crisis, humanitarian aid plays a critical role. Organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), and UNICEF continue to provide food, medical care, and support to vulnerable populations. However, coordination with the Taliban authorities makes aid distribution complex and sometimes ineffective.

Some NGOs have had to suspend their activities following the Taliban’s ban on women working in the humanitarian sector. This decision has hindered access to aid in certain rural areas, where mixed teams are essential to reach female-headed households. Concerns over the potential diversion of aid by the Taliban remain a significant issue for international donors.

According to Médecins Sans Frontières (2023), “the ban on women’s participation in humanitarian operations has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, depriving thousands of women and children of vital care.”

3.7 Attempts at Economic Recovery

To address the crisis, the Taliban regime has sought to diversify its economic partnerships, particularly with countries like China, Pakistan, and Iran. Agreements have been made for the export of natural resources, including coal and gemstones. However, these initiatives remain limited and cannot compensate for the lack of large-scale international funding.

The Taliban have also encouraged a return to subsistence farming and the exploitation of local natural resources, but these measures have struggled to yield short-term results. Additionally, the economy remains heavily dependent on the opium trade, a controversial industry that funds both Taliban operations and criminal networks.

3.8 Assessment of the Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

The economic crisis in Afghanistan has triggered an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe. International sanctions, frozen assets, and the suspension of numerous aid programs have left millions of Afghans in a desperate situation. Women, children, and ethnic minorities are particularly vulnerable. International efforts to mitigate this crisis are often hindered by the Taliban regime, which imposes restrictions on access to resources and NGO interventions.

Without more constructive diplomatic engagement and enhanced humanitarian aid, the crisis could worsen, leading to mass migrations and increased regional instability.

4. National Security and Rising Violence

Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan’s security situation has become increasingly complex. Although the Taliban now control nearly the entire territory, they face major security challenges. The rise of the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), internal rivalries, and the persistence of armed groups in certain regions pose significant threats to the country’s stability. This section examines the main security threats, the Taliban regime’s strategies to address them, and their regional implications.

4.1 The Rise and Threat of the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K)

The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) has emerged as one of the primary security threats in Afghanistan since 2021. This group, affiliated with the Islamic State, has intensified its attacks since the Taliban’s takeover, targeting not only civilians but also strategic infrastructure and Taliban religious leaders. Unlike the Taliban, ISIS-K promotes an even more extreme ideology and considers the Taliban “traitors” for negotiating with the United States during the 2020 Doha agreements.

Since 2022, ISIS-K attacks have escalated. Among the most notable was the explosion at a Shia mosque in Kunduz in October 2022, which killed more than 50 people, demonstrating the group’s ability to target highly secured locations. Additionally, attacks on foreign embassies, including the Russian Embassy in Kabul in September 2022, highlight the group’s intent to undermine the Taliban regime internationally.

The United Nations (2023) reports that “ISIS-K has evolved from isolated cells into a coordinated network with increased capabilities for conducting complex attacks.” According to the report, the group has an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 active fighters in Afghanistan.

4.2 Taliban Strategies Against ISIS-K

To counter ISIS-K, the Taliban have launched several military operations in Nangarhar, Kunar, and Kabul provinces, considered strongholds of the group. While these operations have dismantled some networks, they have also caused civilian casualties, drawing criticism from the local population. The use of brutal methods, such as extrajudicial executions, undermines the regime’s legitimacy, even among Taliban supporters.

The Taliban also rely on surveillance and intelligence gathered through tribal networks and former warlords. However, the lack of modern resources, particularly in electronic intelligence, limits their ability to anticipate and thwart ISIS-K attacks.

According to a Crisis Group report (2023), “the Taliban’s efforts to eradicate ISIS-K remain ineffective due to the fragmentation of their security forces and internal conflicts.”

4.3 Internal Rivalries Within the Taliban

Despite their apparent unity, the Taliban are divided by internal rivalries between factions. These divisions stem primarily from disagreements over governance strategies and relations with foreign powers. Two major factions are:

         1.      Pragmatic Moderates: They support an open policy to gain international recognition and avoid complete economic isolation.

         2.      Ultraconservatives: They reject any compromise with the West and advocate for a strict, uncompromising implementation of Sharia law.

These internal tensions have occasionally led to local armed clashes. For instance, in Herat province in 2022, disputes between Taliban commanders over resource distribution highlighted the central government’s struggles to maintain cohesion.

Researcher Antonio Giustozzi noted in his study on the Taliban (2023) that “internal divisions are a structural weakness of the regime, making crisis management increasingly complex.”

4.4 The Resurgence of Armed Resistance Groups

Following the fall of the Afghan government in 2021, armed resistance groups have emerged in certain regions, particularly in the Panjshir Valley, a historical stronghold of Afghan resistance. The National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, son of the legendary commander Massoud, conducts sporadic operations against the Taliban regime.

While the NRF lacks the military strength to overthrow the Taliban, it symbolizes persistent opposition that could gain traction if the population, frustrated by economic and social repression, actively supports it. Other smaller, less organized movements are also attempting to unify resistance efforts but lack coordination and international backing.

According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023), “armed resistance could become a more formidable force if internal Taliban fractures worsen.”

4.5 The Impact of Insecurity on the Civilian Population

The rising violence in Afghanistan has devastating consequences for civilians. Attacks, clashes between Taliban forces and armed groups, and military operations in rural areas have led to massive displacements. In 2023, the UN estimated that over 700,000 people were internally displaced due to violence.

Civilians are often caught in the crossfire: the Taliban impose restrictions and retaliate against those they accuse of supporting resistance or ISIS-K, while armed group attacks frequently affect civilian areas. The Hazara community, in particular, remains highly vulnerable, targeted by ISIS-K and marginalized by the Taliban regime.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) stated in 2023 that “the surge in violence in Afghanistan could trigger a new wave of refugees toward neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan and Iran.”

4.6 The Cross-Border Threat and Regional Security

Afghanistan’s instability has significant repercussions on regional security. Neighboring countries, including Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and China, fear that Afghanistan could become a sanctuary for transnational terrorist groups. Pakistan, historically close to the Taliban, faces attacks from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group inspired by the Afghan Taliban but hostile to Islamabad.

Iran remains wary of rising tensions in border areas, particularly in Shia-majority provinces. Skirmishes have already occurred between Taliban forces and Iranian border guards. China, too, fears that Uyghur militants based in Afghanistan could threaten stability in Xinjiang.

A UN Security Council report (2023) warns that “Afghanistan risks becoming a convergence point for multiple regional terrorist groups, exacerbating the fragmentation of jihadist networks in Central Asia.”

4.7 National Security Assessment

Afghanistan’s security situation remains highly fragile. While the Taliban have consolidated control over much of the territory, they face multiple threats: ISIS-K, armed resistance groups, and internal rivalries all weaken their hold. Persistent violence could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and trigger regional instability, jeopardizing the stability of Central Asia. Without an inclusive governance strategy and measured repression, the Taliban regime’s legitimacy will continue to erode, leaving the door open for another phase of chaos.

5. International Relations and Taliban Diplomacy

Since their return to power in 2021, the Taliban have sought to rebuild diplomatic relations with the international community while asserting their sovereignty. However, international recognition of their regime remains limited. Many countries hesitate to establish formal relations due to concerns over human rights, terrorism, and regional security. This section explores the Taliban’s diplomatic strategies, the international community’s responses, and the challenges they face in their quest for legitimacy.

5.1 The Taliban’s Diplomatic Objectives

Following their takeover in 2021, the Taliban quickly expressed a desire to normalize international relations. Their main diplomatic objectives can be summarized as follows:

         1.      International Recognition: Securing official recognition to solidify their position on the global stage.

         2.      Asset Unfreezing: Pushing for the release of frozen Afghan assets held abroad, particularly in the U.S., to revive the economy.

         3.      Sanctions Lifting: Advocating for the removal of economic and political sanctions that hinder the country’s development.

         4.      Sustaining Humanitarian Aid: Ensuring the continued flow of international aid to address the humanitarian crisis while asserting regime control over its distribution.

To achieve these goals, the Taliban have adopted rhetoric emphasizing national sovereignty and rejecting foreign interference. However, this approach remains fragile in the face of criticism regarding human rights violations and alleged ties to terrorist groups.

5.2 Relations with Regional Powers

The Taliban have increased their efforts to forge partnerships with regional powers, including China, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia:

         •        China: China views Afghanistan as a strategic opportunity to secure its Belt and Road Initiative projects. In exchange for economic support, Beijing demands that Kabul ensure security in the Xinjiang region and combat Uyghur separatist groups. In January 2023, China signed a mining agreement for the extraction of Afghan natural resources, including lithium.

         •        Pakistan: Pakistan remains a key partner, but the relationship is ambivalent. Islamabad, a longtime supporter of the Taliban, now faces cross-border attacks from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), causing rising tensions along the Waziristan border.

         •        Iran: Iran maintains cautious ties with the Taliban, particularly due to concerns about the Shia Hazara minority and shared water resources. Sporadic clashes have occurred between the two countries’ forces near the Helmand River.

         •        Russia: Russia engages in strategic dialogue with the Taliban for regional security reasons. Moscow fears the spread of extremism in Central Asia and seeks to maintain influence in the region while refraining from officially recognizing the regime.

According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023), “regional powers are balancing pragmatism and mistrust, viewing Afghanistan as both a geopolitical lever and a security concern.”

5.3 Relations with Western Countries

Relations with Western countries, particularly the U.S. and the European Union, are marked by mutual distrust:

         •        United States: Since their chaotic withdrawal in August 2021, the U.S. has maintained a strict sanctions policy against the Taliban. However, it has shown openness to discussions on humanitarian aid distribution and the partial release of frozen Afghan assets. Washington demands guarantees on counterterrorism efforts and human rights.

         •        European Union: The EU has adopted a similar stance, emphasizing the need to protect women and minorities before any normalization of relations. The EU also funds several humanitarian programs but refuses to officially recognize the regime.

According to the International Crisis Group (2023), “negotiations between the Taliban and the West remain stalled, largely due to the regime’s escalating repression of women’s rights.”

5.4 The Role of International Organizations

The United Nations plays a key role in coordinating humanitarian aid and engaging with the Taliban. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) remains active but operates in an increasingly restricted environment. UN Security Council resolutions have called for cooperation to ensure humanitarian access, but tangible results are limited.

Other organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), remain active on the ground despite significant challenges. However, the Taliban’s decision to ban women from working with NGOs has severely impacted humanitarian operations.

5.5 The Quest for International Legitimacy

Gaining international recognition remains one of the Taliban regime’s primary objectives. Recognition would not only unlock critical funds but also improve Afghanistan’s diplomatic standing globally.

However, official recognition is contingent on several conditions:

         1.      Respect for Human Rights: Western countries insist on improved treatment of women and minorities as a non-negotiable condition.

         2.      Counterterrorism Efforts: The international community demands robust guarantees against the use of Afghan territory by terrorist groups.

         3.      Regional Stability: Afghanistan’s neighbors require clear commitments to maintain peace along its borders.

A report by the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies (2023) concludes, “As long as the Taliban fail to show concrete signs of change, international recognition will remain out of reach.”

5.6 Obstacles to International Recognition

Several factors hinder the Taliban’s recognition on the global stage:

         •        Human Rights Violations: Restrictions on women and journalists, as well as the repression of protests, continue to attract international criticism.

         •        Terrorism Links: Despite promises to break ties with extremist groups, reports suggest that Al-Qaeda operatives remain active in Afghanistan.

         •        Lack of Inclusive Governance: The absence of representation for various ethnic and religious communities within the Taliban government undermines its domestic and international legitimacy.

5.7 Assessment of International Relations

The Taliban’s international relations are characterized by pragmatic yet limited diplomacy. While some regional powers have established economic and strategic partnerships with the regime, official recognition remains a distant goal due to ongoing human rights abuses and security concerns.

The international community faces a dilemma: engage with the Taliban to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe or maintain political pressure that risks further isolating Afghanistan.

6. Daily Life Under the Taliban Regime

Since their return to power in August 2021, the Taliban have imposed numerous restrictions that have profoundly transformed daily life for Afghans. These changes affect various aspects of society, including individual freedoms, women’s roles, access to education, cultural practices, and civil rights. This section examines the impact of Taliban policies on citizens’ lives, the forms of resistance emerging, and how the population is adapting to survive under these conditions.

6.1 The Role of Women in Afghan Society

One of the most striking aspects of the Taliban regime is the drastic regression of women’s rights. From the moment they regained power, the Taliban reinstated restrictions similar to those of their first rule (1996–2001), including banning women from working in certain sectors, mandating full-body veiling, and limiting access to public spaces.

In December 2022, the Taliban prohibited women from working for non-governmental organizations (NGOs), severely impacting humanitarian aid distribution. This measure not only reduced women’s economic independence but also deprived many families of their primary source of income.

Women have also been excluded from secondary and higher education, condemning an entire generation to educational darkness. While these policies have faced global condemnation, the regime persists, claiming these measures align with their interpretation of Sharia law.

According to Human Rights Watch (2023), “more than 1.2 million Afghan girls are denied education, exacerbating social inequalities and dooming the country’s future.”

6.2 Restrictions on Individual Freedoms

Individual freedoms have significantly regressed under the Taliban regime. Media outlets are subjected to strict censorship, and many journalists have fled the country due to fear of retaliation. Peaceful protests are systematically suppressed, and human rights activists are regularly arrested or harassed.

The regime has also banned entertainment such as music, films, and certain forms of art, labeling them contrary to Islamic values. Public gathering spaces, such as parks, have been segregated by gender, further limiting opportunities for social interaction.

Reporters Without Borders states, “The number of active media outlets in Afghanistan has decreased by 60% since 2021, and hundreds of journalists have been forced to flee.”

6.3 The Educational Situation

The Afghan education system has been severely impacted by the Taliban’s restrictive policies. In addition to banning girls from attending secondary schools and universities, many rural schools have closed due to a lack of resources and the prevailing insecurity.

In some areas, underground schools for girls have emerged, often led by volunteer teachers who risk their lives to provide education to the younger generation. However, these initiatives are limited and insufficient to address the scale of the problem.

According to UNESCO (2023), “The right to education for Afghan girls is now among the most restricted in the world.”

6.4 Access to Healthcare

Afghanistan’s healthcare system, already fragile before the Taliban’s takeover, has deteriorated further due to the economic crisis and imposed restrictions. Many hospitals lack medicines, medical equipment, and qualified personnel. In some provinces, bans on female doctors and nurses have further reduced access to healthcare for women and children.

International NGOs play a crucial role in maintaining basic health services, but their operations are often hindered by Taliban restrictions. Maternal mortality rates have risen alarmingly due to the absence of adequate prenatal care.

The WHO (2023) reports, “More than 70% of rural medical facilities are operating below capacity due to a lack of funding and staff.”

6.5 The Economic Situation of Households

The economic crisis has deeply affected the daily lives of Afghan households. With high unemployment rates and soaring inflation, many families struggle to meet basic needs. Prices for staples like bread, rice, and oil have doubled in some regions.

Families resort to desperate survival strategies, such as selling their possessions, pulling children out of school to work, or forcing girls into early marriages to reduce household expenses.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), “18 million Afghans are experiencing severe food insecurity, with famine risks in several provinces.”

6.6 Life in Rural Areas

In rural areas, the situation is even more critical. Conflicts, forced displacements, and weak infrastructure have made daily life extremely challenging. Farmers face recurrent droughts, a lack of government support, and widespread insecurity.

Internal displacements caused by clashes between the Taliban and ISIS-K have forced thousands of families to leave their land and seek refuge in cities, where they often live in makeshift camps without basic services.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates, “More than 500,000 people were internally displaced due to insecurity and conflict in 2023.”

6.7 Forms of Civil Resistance

In response to the restrictions imposed by the Taliban regime, forms of civil resistance have emerged across various regions of the country. Women, in particular, play a central role in these movements. Despite repression, they organize clandestine protests to demand their rights, especially the right to education and work.

Solidarity networks have also multiplied on social media, where Afghan exiles raise international awareness about the situation. However, this resistance is often fragmented and lacks substantial international support.

According to Amnesty International (2023), “Civil resistance in Afghanistan highlights the courage of those who refuse to submit to the deprivations imposed by the regime.”

6.8 Resilience and Adaptation of the Population

Despite the challenges, the Afghan population demonstrates remarkable resilience. Communities organize to fill the gaps left by the state by creating support networks and launching local initiatives to assist the most vulnerable.

Traditional Afghan practices of family and community solidarity play a crucial role in helping families survive. However, this resilience has limits, and without increased international support, the risk of social collapse remains high.

A report by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) states, “Despite their resilience, Afghans cannot face this prolonged crisis alone.”

Summary of Daily Life Under the Taliban Regime

Daily life in Afghanistan is marked by deprivation, restrictions, and constant challenges. The Afghan population, particularly women and children, bears the brunt of the Taliban’s repressive policies and the ongoing economic crisis. While the resilience of the Afghan people is admirable, the international community must strengthen its support to prevent an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.

7. Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms Under the Taliban Regime

Since their return to power in August 2021, the Taliban have implemented a regime based on their strict interpretation of Sharia law, resulting in systematic human rights violations and severe restrictions on fundamental freedoms. This section explores the regime’s repressive policies, their impact on various social groups, and national and international reactions to these violations.

7.1 Repression of Women’s and Girls’ Rights

Women’s and girls’ rights in Afghanistan have been a primary target of Taliban policies. Draconian measures have banned women from accessing secondary and higher education and from working in most public and private sectors. Many institutions have been forced to dismiss female staff, and women are barred from holding decision-making positions.

Women’s mobility is also heavily restricted: they must be accompanied by a mahram (male family member) to travel long distances and are excluded from many public spaces, including parks and gyms.

Consequences:

These restrictions have not only impoverished women but have also deepened their social isolation. Many women, deprived of their livelihoods, have fallen into poverty or been forced to leave the country. The repression has also led to an increase in early and forced marriages.

According to Amnesty International (2023), “Afghanistan is the only country in the world where women are completely banned from accessing secondary and higher education.”

7.2 Repression of Freedom of Expression

The Taliban regime has imposed strict control over freedom of expression and the media. Journalists face constant pressure, and many media organizations have been shut down. Those who dare to criticize the regime risk arbitrary arrest, physical violence, or even forced disappearances.

Social media is closely monitored, with penalties imposed on individuals accused of sharing information deemed “contrary to Islamic values.” This repression has significantly reduced the public space for expression and debate.

Reporters Without Borders (2023) notes, “Over 200 journalists have fled Afghanistan since 2021, and 80% of local media outlets have ceased operations.”

7.3 Ethnic and Religious Minorities

Ethnic and religious minorities, particularly the Hazaras (predominantly Shia Muslims), Sikhs, and Hindus, face increased discrimination under the Taliban regime. The Hazaras have been systematically targeted, with suicide bombings striking their mosques and neighborhoods. ISIS-K, which considers Shias apostates, has intensified its attacks against this community, often with the inaction—or even complicity—of Taliban authorities.

Other religious minorities, such as Sikhs and Hindus, have seen their already dwindling populations leave the country en masse. Non-Sunni places of worship are frequently vandalized or forcibly closed.

According to the UN Human Rights Council (2023), “Hazaras in Afghanistan face a high risk of crimes against humanity due to the targeted persecution they endure.”

7.4 Children’s Rights

Afghan children face severe violations of their rights. The ban on education for girls has denied thousands the opportunity to attend secondary school, depriving them of a future. Boys are often forcibly recruited into madrassas (religious schools) that focus exclusively on Quranic studies, neglecting broader educational needs.

Child labor has also risen sharply due to widespread poverty. Many children are forced to work in hazardous conditions to support their families.

A UNICEF (2023) report highlights that “more than 28% of children in Afghanistan are engaged in dangerous forms of child labor.”

7.5 Torture and Extrajudicial Executions

The Taliban have reinstated repressive practices such as public floggings, amputations, and executions, often carried out in stadiums or public squares. These punishments are intended to instill fear and assert their authority over the population.

Local NGOs have also reported cases of torture in Taliban detention centers, primarily targeting former members of Afghan security forces, journalists, and political activists. These practices have been condemned internationally but remain widespread.

Human Rights Watch (2023) states, “Hundreds of extrajudicial executions have been documented across multiple provinces since the Taliban’s takeover.”

7.6 Justice and Lack of Legal Protections

The Taliban judicial system relies on religious courts that enforce a strict interpretation of Sharia law. These courts operate outside international legal norms, and defendants often lack access to fair trials or legal representation. Verdicts are delivered quickly and cannot be appealed.

This system deprives citizens of legal protections, particularly women, who are systematically disadvantaged in cases involving divorce, child custody, and inheritance.

7.7 National and International Reactions to Human Rights Violations

The Taliban’s repression has drawn widespread international condemnation. Human rights organizations, the United Nations, and various governments have denounced these violations and called for targeted sanctions against Taliban leaders responsible for abuses.

However, certain forms of international pressure, such as freezing Afghan assets and imposing economic sanctions, have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, disproportionately affecting the population rather than the regime.

On the national level, peaceful resistance movements, often led by women, continue to protest despite repression. These protests demonstrate a refusal to let human rights violations go unnoticed.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (2023) emphasizes, “The international community must adopt a balanced approach that condemns human rights violations without worsening the humanitarian crisis.”

7.8 Overview of Human Rights Under the Taliban Regime

Human rights in Afghanistan have suffered a major setback since 2021. Women, children, minorities, and journalists are particularly vulnerable under a regime that enforces widespread repression to maintain its authority. While civil resistance persists, it remains fragile without significant international support.

The challenge for the international community is to find effective pressure mechanisms that protect fundamental rights without further exacerbating the suffering of the Afghan people.

8. Future Prospects for Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s future remains uncertain and depends on multiple internal and external factors, including Taliban governance, the international community’s response, and the population’s ability to withstand the hardships imposed by the regime. This section explores possible scenarios for the country’s political, economic, and social future.

8.1 Political Stability and Taliban Governance

The Taliban’s ability to maintain power will depend on their capacity to solidify their authority while managing internal challenges.

         •        Internal Cohesion: The Taliban regime is divided by internal tensions between moderate and radical factions. These divisions could weaken the regime if not addressed.

         •        Governance Capacity: With limited experience in state management, the Taliban face complex administrative challenges, including maintaining public services, controlling finances, and managing infrastructure.

         •        National Dialogue: Some observers advocate for an inclusive national dialogue to form a government representing all ethnic and religious communities. However, the Taliban have so far rejected any power-sharing initiatives.

Possible Scenario:

If the Taliban consolidate power without internal divisions, they may maintain control in the short term. However, internal fractures could lead to renewed instability or even civil war.

8.2 Security and Counterterrorism

Afghanistan has become a complex theater for terrorist groups since the Taliban’s return. ISIS-K has escalated attacks against the Taliban regime, religious minorities, and public institutions, posing a direct threat to the country’s stability.

         •        Conflict with ISIS-K: Despite opposing ISIS-K, the Taliban struggle to eradicate the group due to its clandestine structure and presence in remote regions.

         •        Regional Risks: Afghanistan risks becoming a base for extremist groups launching cross-border attacks, alarming neighboring countries like Pakistan, China, and Iran.

According to the U.S. Institute of Peace (2023), “Afghanistan is once again regarded as a potential epicenter for regional and international terrorism.”

8.3 Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

Afghanistan’s economy remains in critical condition, heavily dependent on international aid and remittances from the Afghan diaspora.

         •        Economic Sanctions: International sanctions and the freezing of Afghan assets abroad continue to paralyze the economy. The Taliban have yet to establish a sustainable economic model or diversify revenue sources.

         •        Natural Resources: Afghanistan has significant natural resources, including rare metals like lithium, copper, and iron. However, exploiting these resources requires investments and infrastructure the country currently lacks.

         •        Unemployment and Poverty: Unemployment remains alarmingly high, with over 90% of the population living below the poverty line.

Possible Scenario:

Without economic recovery and sanctions relief, Afghanistan could face a prolonged crisis, with increased risks of famine and mass migration to neighboring countries.

8.4 The Role of the International Community

The international community plays a crucial role in shaping Afghanistan’s future. However, policies vary between imposing sanctions and providing humanitarian aid, lacking a unified strategy.

         •        Conditional Engagement: Some countries, particularly in Europe, maintain humanitarian support while demanding guarantees on human rights.

         •        Regional Influence: Countries like China, Russia, and Pakistan aim to expand their influence in Afghanistan to protect their strategic interests, often sidelining human rights concerns.

         •        International Negotiations: Some experts argue that partial recognition of the Taliban, under conditions, could secure concessions on key issues like girls’ education and counterterrorism.

A Carnegie Foundation (2023) report suggests, “Pragmatic dialogue with the Taliban is essential to avoid Afghanistan’s total collapse.”

8.5 Civil Resistance and Hope for Change

Despite repression, civil resistance remains active, led by Afghan women, youth, and diaspora groups.

         •        Local Protests: Clandestine demonstrations, often organized by women, continue to demand fundamental rights like access to education and work.

         •        International Mobilization: The Afghan diaspora plays a key role in raising global awareness and pressuring governments to act.

         •        Underground Networks: Informal education and support networks have emerged to provide alternatives for girls denied schooling.

According to Women for Afghan Women (2023), “The mobilization of Afghan women represents a beacon of hope for change, even in the harshest conditions.”

8.6 Possible Scenarios for Afghanistan’s Future

Several scenarios can be envisioned for the country’s future:

         1.      Authoritarian Status Quo: The Taliban retain power through repression and the lack of credible political alternatives.

         2.      Regime Collapse: Internal crises or popular uprisings could lead to the regime’s fall, resulting in political uncertainty.

         3.      Negotiated Transition: Under international pressure, the Taliban could agree to limited reforms and form a more inclusive government.

         4.      Prolonged Isolation: If the Taliban refuse concessions, Afghanistan risks enduring prolonged isolation and deepening economic and social crises.

8.7 General Outlook on Afghanistan’s Future

Afghanistan’s future hangs between contradictory forces: the Taliban’s grip on power through repression and a resilient population yearning for freedom and dignity. The international community plays a pivotal role, but its actions must be better coordinated to avoid prolonged catastrophe. The decisions made in the coming years will determine whether the country remains trapped in a cycle of violence and poverty or begins a transition toward a more just and stable future.

Conclusion

Afghanistan is experiencing one of the darkest periods in its modern history since the Taliban regained power in August 2021. The regime’s repressive policies have caused a massive rollback of human rights, particularly for women and girls, while further isolating the country internationally. The economic and humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by sanctions, frozen foreign assets, and institutional collapse, has plunged millions into poverty.

However, Afghan society continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Solidarity networks, civil resistance movements, and local initiatives highlight a persistent hope for a better future. The Afghan diaspora also plays a crucial role in supporting vulnerable populations and raising global awareness.

Looking ahead, scenarios range from maintaining the authoritarian status quo to potential regime collapse or a negotiated political transition. The lack of international unity and the complexity of regional dynamics make any outcome uncertain. A pragmatic international approach, combining diplomatic pressure and strengthened humanitarian aid, will be essential to prevent the country’s complete collapse and work toward peace and stability.

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